Interesting

Has anyone written a history centered on predictions/expectations about the future?

Has anyone written a history centered on predictions/expectations about the future?


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I think the way men represent to themselves the future ( I mean here what is about to arrive within a period of say, half a century) is part of their present. The anticipations ( positive or negative) of the next historical period are , somewhat, part of a given historical period.

( In the same way as our anticipations about what we are about to see are part of what we see while discovering a city for example, which explains that a city never has the same charm as the first time we saw it; in the same way as our anticipations about what our life was going to be were part of our youth , and made this youth so beautiful).

Has a history of these anticipations ever been written? I mean a history of the alledged " trends" and " tendencies" men thought ( often misleadingly) were operating " in the depth" during the period they were presently living?

Note : I'm not thinking specially of anticipations regarding technology; rather of anticipations regarding politics, religion, society.


I'm not sure whether my proposition answers exactly your question. But is a good start.

There are some historians who study trends in history, which means, they try to find patterns in history that might explain it, and in some way describe a the potential future based in the models they have. This is not Psychohistory as one might hope to find, but instead is called Philosophy of history. Some interesting authors are Ibn Khaldun, Oswald Spengler, Arnold Toynbee or maybe recently Peter Turchin, Francis Fukuyama or Samuel Huntington.
From that list of authors, maybe Spengler or Fukuyama are the ones who tried to describe a potential future for western civilization, even thoug Fukuyama later had to modify his prediction.

Who was more effective to describe the future? Maybe Khaldun, whose theory of asabiyyah was strong enough to describe the dynamic of invasions that came from dessert tribes.

I recommend you start with Huntington or Turchin. They are contemporary. Or, if you have time, the abridged version of Study of History.


Watch the video: Διαδικτυακοί πόροι για τη διδασκαλία της Ιστορίας και όχι μόνο (July 2022).


Comments:

  1. Adalric

    It is simply amazing :)

  2. Miramar

    Certainly. I join told all above. Let's discuss this question. Here or in PM.

  3. Radmund

    Curious....

  4. Arazahn

    Agree, that's the funny phrase

  5. Kutaiba

    Well sit down, I'm waiting for your robot



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